Respectfully, I think you miss the point. Yes, it is likely that Trump departs in four years. I suspect he will be mostly checked out spending his time on the golf course as per the last administration. But JD Vance may well have used the 25th Amendment based on Trump’s dementia to take over. However, the impact of his administration, let’s call it authoritarian-lite, will radically transform American democracy. Voting rights will be gutted with partisan Secretaries of State allowed to entrench GOP rule, another two or three young Supreme Court justices will be appointed, cementing the Conservative block’s assault on our Constitution with their nakedly partisan and basically made-up jurisprudence, the DOJ will hunt an enemies list, dissent will be stifled, the Federal bureaucracy will cease functioning as experts and instead push the vision of Project 25 with disastrous consequences, the economy will be left in ruin as protectionism runs riot, Ukraine will have accepted Russian control over its territory and foreign policy, Europe will be terrified and try to appease Russia, and there is a 50/50 chance that China will have invaded Taiwan. The Left will be dispirited and in disarray, exhausted by 9 years at trying to keep the country a democracy, and realizing that a significant section of their fellow citizens want to destroy it instead. It will be the end of America as we know it - with a whimper not a bang - with the semblance of democracy but not the substance.
I came here to write the same thing… there is no way trump will finish a four year term if elected… he will have ridden into the sunset long before his term is up… what we will have is Vance… who is young and less principled then Trump… he will take the Republican Party so far right it will not be recognizable compared to what it is today…
Those of us left will experience an America where only the rich have a chance at surviving…
It's all up to the Democratic Party, like it was to the Republican Party in the 1850s. My hope and prayer is that the Democratic Party will not lose its constitutional and ethical rudder. If the party stays strong, a course correction is possible.
It all comes back to having free and fair elections. If the GOP screw things up as much as we think they will, then an election swinging the pendulum back is the likely outcome. However, the Supreme Court and the GOP will work hard to thwart the democratic will as they have over the last 50 years. I can't imagine Republican Secretaries of State not putting their thumbs on the scale if they are given the green light. Remember, we wouldn't have had George W Bush, without Jeb Bush throwing 50,000 voters off the Florida voter rolls. This is nothing new, but it's about to get much worse. Finally, the Electoral College is playing its part - an anachronism that no modern democracy has to contend with. My analysis is we are screwed for at least the next 20 years. As I said it before and I will say it again, Obama made two critical mistakes - one was focusing on health care rather than voting rights, and the second was rolling over when the GOP stole a Supreme Court seat. We are paying the price for that now in spades.
Thank you. Excellent analysis that helps me: Never give an inch to tyranny. If you have a shortlist of things you feel the Democratic Party should do, I'm interested to hear. Also, do you think the best mindset going forward for Dems is "us against them," fighting "the autocratic threat" with everything we have? Or do you have more faith in some other mindset?
In all honesty, I don't think the Democratic Party can do much. If they control the House it will be a weak check against an Administration filled with incompetent, venal and frankly evil appointees that will make it through the Senate confirmation process. Trump will enact his revenge fantasies and has his playbook in Project 2025. It's a bleak message but all we can do is be good neighbors to the people in our communities that are going to be oppressed by the GOP, and wait to pick up the pieces in a decade. Democrats are always the ones who fix what the GOP destroys, and they are also the ones that resets the country on a moral path. Being a US citizen is going to be like being an impotent spectator to carnage.
Thank you, Dr Merritt, I'm taking some solace in this piece while I sit at my desk during this very late hour in the night, brooding, paralyzed by the inevitable, and choked by the calamity that four more years of this man will surely wreak. I’m grateful for your assurances that our democracy cannot be undone by the kind of mercurial aptitude to which he attends most matters. But even if he cannot succeed in forever remaining in office like his fellow demagogues, his ethical vacancy during another term in office will be more than enough.
Yes, beautifully put. I am allowing myself to grieve before getting to work. For the moment my feeling is that the Trump win is devastating and tragic. It is unbelievable and traumatic. Another four years of pain and stress and witnessing and experiencing the worst of human nature. A sad nightmare. Thank you for writing.
Do you go by Ted? In case you have thoughts, I would like to ask you if you have a shortlist of things you feel the Democratic Party should do. Also, do you think the best mindset going forward for Dems is "us against them," fighting "the autocratic threat" with everything we have? Or do you have more faith in some other mindset or approach?
Respectfully, I think you miss the point. Yes, it is likely that Trump departs in four years. I suspect he will be mostly checked out spending his time on the golf course as per the last administration. But JD Vance may well have used the 25th Amendment based on Trump’s dementia to take over. However, the impact of his administration, let’s call it authoritarian-lite, will radically transform American democracy. Voting rights will be gutted with partisan Secretaries of State allowed to entrench GOP rule, another two or three young Supreme Court justices will be appointed, cementing the Conservative block’s assault on our Constitution with their nakedly partisan and basically made-up jurisprudence, the DOJ will hunt an enemies list, dissent will be stifled, the Federal bureaucracy will cease functioning as experts and instead push the vision of Project 25 with disastrous consequences, the economy will be left in ruin as protectionism runs riot, Ukraine will have accepted Russian control over its territory and foreign policy, Europe will be terrified and try to appease Russia, and there is a 50/50 chance that China will have invaded Taiwan. The Left will be dispirited and in disarray, exhausted by 9 years at trying to keep the country a democracy, and realizing that a significant section of their fellow citizens want to destroy it instead. It will be the end of America as we know it - with a whimper not a bang - with the semblance of democracy but not the substance.
I came here to write the same thing… there is no way trump will finish a four year term if elected… he will have ridden into the sunset long before his term is up… what we will have is Vance… who is young and less principled then Trump… he will take the Republican Party so far right it will not be recognizable compared to what it is today…
Those of us left will experience an America where only the rich have a chance at surviving…
It's all up to the Democratic Party, like it was to the Republican Party in the 1850s. My hope and prayer is that the Democratic Party will not lose its constitutional and ethical rudder. If the party stays strong, a course correction is possible.
It all comes back to having free and fair elections. If the GOP screw things up as much as we think they will, then an election swinging the pendulum back is the likely outcome. However, the Supreme Court and the GOP will work hard to thwart the democratic will as they have over the last 50 years. I can't imagine Republican Secretaries of State not putting their thumbs on the scale if they are given the green light. Remember, we wouldn't have had George W Bush, without Jeb Bush throwing 50,000 voters off the Florida voter rolls. This is nothing new, but it's about to get much worse. Finally, the Electoral College is playing its part - an anachronism that no modern democracy has to contend with. My analysis is we are screwed for at least the next 20 years. As I said it before and I will say it again, Obama made two critical mistakes - one was focusing on health care rather than voting rights, and the second was rolling over when the GOP stole a Supreme Court seat. We are paying the price for that now in spades.
Thank you. Excellent analysis that helps me: Never give an inch to tyranny. If you have a shortlist of things you feel the Democratic Party should do, I'm interested to hear. Also, do you think the best mindset going forward for Dems is "us against them," fighting "the autocratic threat" with everything we have? Or do you have more faith in some other mindset?
In all honesty, I don't think the Democratic Party can do much. If they control the House it will be a weak check against an Administration filled with incompetent, venal and frankly evil appointees that will make it through the Senate confirmation process. Trump will enact his revenge fantasies and has his playbook in Project 2025. It's a bleak message but all we can do is be good neighbors to the people in our communities that are going to be oppressed by the GOP, and wait to pick up the pieces in a decade. Democrats are always the ones who fix what the GOP destroys, and they are also the ones that resets the country on a moral path. Being a US citizen is going to be like being an impotent spectator to carnage.
I'm fully in agreement with this assessment.
Eli
Thank you for this reasoned and helpful message. Sheila
Thank you, Sheila! Hopefully, we will have a safe outcome with a Kamala Harris victory by the end of the week 🙏
Thank you, Dr Merritt, I'm taking some solace in this piece while I sit at my desk during this very late hour in the night, brooding, paralyzed by the inevitable, and choked by the calamity that four more years of this man will surely wreak. I’m grateful for your assurances that our democracy cannot be undone by the kind of mercurial aptitude to which he attends most matters. But even if he cannot succeed in forever remaining in office like his fellow demagogues, his ethical vacancy during another term in office will be more than enough.
Yes, beautifully put. I am allowing myself to grieve before getting to work. For the moment my feeling is that the Trump win is devastating and tragic. It is unbelievable and traumatic. Another four years of pain and stress and witnessing and experiencing the worst of human nature. A sad nightmare. Thank you for writing.
Do you go by Ted? In case you have thoughts, I would like to ask you if you have a shortlist of things you feel the Democratic Party should do. Also, do you think the best mindset going forward for Dems is "us against them," fighting "the autocratic threat" with everything we have? Or do you have more faith in some other mindset or approach?